Antarctica at risk of ‘abrupt changes’ that could have catastrophic consequences
Adam Morton
Antarctica could undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible changes that have catastrophic consequences unless urgent action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions, according to a review by 21 Australian and international scientists.
Published in the journal Nature, the review of published Antarctic science found changes facing the southern continent were interlinked and putting pressure on the global climate, sea level and ecosystems.
It highlights several risks, including:
-
The “severe risk” that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could collapse. If that happened, it could raise sea levels by more than three metres and threaten coastal cities and communities across the world.
-
The accelerating disappearance of sea ice floating in the ocean around Antarctica. This has a range of knock-on effects, including worsening warming by increasing the amount of solar heat retained in the ocean and increasing the risk that species that rely on the ice, such as emperor penguins, could go extinct.
-
The potential rapid slowdown of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, which could alter the world’s climate for centuries. Among other changes, it would mean vital nutrients stay at the seafloor instead of being recirculated back to the surface, where biological systems depend on them.
Dr Nerilie Abram, the chief scientist at the Australian Antarctic Division and the study’s lead author, said:
The only way to avoid further abrupt changes and their far-reaching impacts is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to limit global warming to as close to 1.5C as possible.
Governments, businesses and communities will need to factor in these abrupt Antarctic changes that are being observed now into future planning for climate change impacts, including in Australia.
Key events
Adam Morton
Aemo says demand for large-scale energy generation to grow by 21% over next decade
The Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) has released its annual report on the investments needed to ensure the national electricity grid remains reliable for the next decade.
It found the outlook had improved from a year ago –assuming all expected investments in new generation, storage and transmission connections that have been promised are delivered on time and in full.
Aemo’s chief executive, Daniel Westerman, said the report showed “the 10-year investment pipeline to manage energy reliability is healthy”. But he said the large number of electricity stations due to retire over the next decade – 11GW worth, nearly all of it coal power – meant the “timely delivery” of new infrastructure was critical.
The operator is forecasting demand for large-scale electricity generation will increase by 21% over the next decade, mainly due to “the rapid expansion of data centres, accelerating business electrification and the broader inclusion of prospective industrial energy users”.
It said a “small reliability gap” of 80MW was forecast in Queensland this summer due to “reduced generator availability, higher forecasts of maximum demand and delayed project commissioning”, and warned capacity would be needed to cover this.
A larger reliability gap of 390MW is forecast in South Australia next financial year if the Torrens Island B gas plant retires as previously planned – but the modelling did not consider a recent in-principle agreement to extend the generator’s life for two years.
Good morning, and welcome to Thursday morning. Nick Visser here to take over for Martin Farrer. Let’s get to it.
Josh Taylor
‘No gap’ for children in transition from NDIS to Thriving Kids, minister says
The health minister, Mark Butler, said there would be no gap in support for parents of children with mild to moderate developmental delays or autism under the $2bn plan to shift those children from NDIS coverage to the Thriving Kids program.
Butler told ABC’s 7.30 program that there is a two-year run-up time before Thriving Kids comes into effect, with services to roll out from next year to give parents confidence they will get the support they need.
The children currently on the NDIS will be entitled to remain on the NDIS, he said, but he reiterated his belief that he doesn’t think, in the long term, the NDIS is “the right scheme for kids with mild to moderate developmental delay or autism.
We’ve only really given parents one option for the last several years – the one port in the storm has been the NDIS. I think that there should be another option. But I’m going to make sure that that option is fully up and running before we start diversion from the NDIS, that’s the only right thing to do.
On fraud in the NDIS, Butler said more work needed to be done, and there needed to be a more robust system of provider registration, noting only 16,000 of the 260,000 service providers are currently registered.
Josh Taylor
Business Council of Australia says ‘broad agreement’ on pausing national construction code
Bran Black, the chief executive of the Business Council of Australia, said following the wrap-up of yesterday’s meetings of the economic reform roundtable there was “pretty broad agreement” to take a pause on the national construction code.
He told ABC’s 7.30 program last night there was also scope for agreement on reform around the federal approvals system and the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act.
The devil is in the detail and there are lots of issues that are still to be finalised, but if you can agree upon the structure, which is broadly in line with the recommendations of Graham Samuel, that’s an excellent spot.
On AI, there remains disagreement with the union movement over workers vetoing the introduction of AI into workplaces. He said AI is just “affecting roles” and not “replacing roles” for the most part, and existing laws can address the issues that are emerging.
He said regulation should not be introduced unless it is needed, and provisions in the Fair Work Act already cover consultation for workers where there are significant changes contemplated for workforces.
What we are concerned about is that if we rush to regulate now, if we rush to regulate too early, then we will miss the opportunity associated with the technology. And if we do that, perversely, we may see the type of outcome that we’re trying to prevent, and opportunities moving overseas and jobs being lost. We don’t want to be in that situation.
Bruce Lehrmann returns to court for second day of appeal hearing
Amanda Meade
Bruce Lehrmann will return to the federal court in Sydney at 10.15am today for day two of his appeal against Justice Michael Lee’s April 2024 defamation judgment.
The federal court found the former Liberal staffer was not defamed by Lisa Wilkinson and Network 10 when The Project broadcast an interview with Brittany Higgins in 2021 in which she alleged she was raped in Parliament House.
Yesterday, Lehrmann’s lawyer, Zali Burrows, apologised to the full bench of the federal court, justices Michael Wigney, Craig Colvin and Wendy Abraham, for her client’s failure to appoint an experienced barrister. Burrows said Lehrmann could not afford to pay for the services of a silk.
It set the stage for a rocky morning for the appellant as Burrows put her case on four grounds, fielding multiple questions from the bench and choosing to delay much of the detail of her case until after Ten and Wilkinson present their submissions.
Sue Chrysanthou SC, for Ten, will be first up today, and she told the court she expected to finish her reply in about one hour.
The court will then hear from Burrows, who will respond to submissions from Chrysanthou and Ten’s silk Matt Collins KC.
The case has been set down for three days.
Antarctica at risk of ‘abrupt changes’ that could have catastrophic consequences
Adam Morton
Antarctica could undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible changes that have catastrophic consequences unless urgent action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions, according to a review by 21 Australian and international scientists.
Published in the journal Nature, the review of published Antarctic science found changes facing the southern continent were interlinked and putting pressure on the global climate, sea level and ecosystems.
It highlights several risks, including:
-
The “severe risk” that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could collapse. If that happened, it could raise sea levels by more than three metres and threaten coastal cities and communities across the world.
-
The accelerating disappearance of sea ice floating in the ocean around Antarctica. This has a range of knock-on effects, including worsening warming by increasing the amount of solar heat retained in the ocean and increasing the risk that species that rely on the ice, such as emperor penguins, could go extinct.
-
The potential rapid slowdown of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, which could alter the world’s climate for centuries. Among other changes, it would mean vital nutrients stay at the seafloor instead of being recirculated back to the surface, where biological systems depend on them.
Dr Nerilie Abram, the chief scientist at the Australian Antarctic Division and the study’s lead author, said:
The only way to avoid further abrupt changes and their far-reaching impacts is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to limit global warming to as close to 1.5C as possible.
Governments, businesses and communities will need to factor in these abrupt Antarctic changes that are being observed now into future planning for climate change impacts, including in Australia.
Welcome
Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer, bringing you the best overnight stories and then I’ll be handing over to Nick Visser.
A study by 21 Australian and international scientists reports today that Antarctica could undergo abrupt and potentially catastrophic changes unless urgent action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions. More shortly.
It’s the final day of the government’s economic roundtable today. Yesterday there seemed to be consensus over a pause to changes to the nation’s construction code, to give builders more certainty and hopefully speed up new housing.
Plus, today Bruce Lehrmann’s appeal hearing continues in the federal court, as he tries to reverse his loss in a defamation case against Network Ten and Lisa Wilkinson. We’ll bring you all the developments from that hearing as they come today.
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