Rigetti Computing (RGTI) enthusiasts should circle August 12 on their calendars, as that’s when the company is scheduled to release its Q2 2025 earnings after the market closes. With analysts anticipating a nearly 30% narrowing of losses, all eyes are on whether Rigetti can deliver on improving fundamentals.
Investors will be watching closely for updates on its progress in scaling quantum systems, advancing partnerships, and moving toward commercial viability. In an industry defined by rapid innovation and high volatility, any new details on Rigetti’s roadmap, revenue trajectory, or technological milestones could drive notable market moves.
Rigetti Computing, founded in 2013 and headquartered in Berkeley, California, is a leading developer of full-stack quantum computing solutions. It designs, manufactures, and deploys superconducting quantum processors and supporting software platforms like Forest and Quantum Cloud Services.
The company carries a market cap of nearly $5 billion, reflecting growing investor interest in its potential.
Rigetti Computing’s stock has experienced a notable rally recently, reflecting renewed investor optimism in quantum technology. Over the past month, its gain stands at 31.5%.
A standout event contributing to this upward trend occurred in mid-July, when Rigetti’s stock surged 30.2% in a single day of trading on July 16, following the announcement of a critical technical breakthrough, achieving 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity. Meanwhile, analysts have become increasingly optimistic, which has helped shift investor sentiment considerably.
In fact, the company has delivered an extraordinary 1,926% return over the year, vastly outperforming broader benchmarks such as the S&P 500 Index ($SPX), which has risen 19.4% in the same period.
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Rigetti Computing’s Q1 2025 financial report, released on May 12, paints a picture of a company balancing operational challenges with strategic and technological advances.
For the quarter ended March 31, revenues totaled just $1.5 million, down markedly from the prior-year quarter’s $3.1 million, while operating expenses climbed to $22.1 million, resulting in an operating loss of $21.6 million. Despite this, a net income of $42.6 million was recorded, driven almost entirely by $62.1 million in non-cash gains stemming from derivative warrant and earn-out liability revaluations, a significant turnaround from the losses in the year-ago quarter.
Rigetti reported EPS of $0.13, a notable improvement from the loss of $0.14 per share in Q1 2024.
Rigetti simultaneously secured a string of high-profile awards and collaborations that underscore its commitment to advancing quantum computing. The company entered Stage A of DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, a performance-based contract worth up to $1 million, centered on its utility-scale quantum computer concept developed with partner Riverlane.
An additional award worth $5.48 million was granted to lead a consortium exploring the Alternating-Bias Assisted Annealing (ABAA) chip fabrication technique aimed at improving the microscopic quality of superconducting qubits.
Across the pond, Rigetti won three Innovate UK Quantum Missions pilot awards, funding projects such as upgrading its NQCC-hosted QPU from 24 to 36 qubits, integrating chip-based controls with its 9-qubit Novera QPU in partnership with SEEQC, and developing a shared open-architecture quantum testbed with collaborators like TreQ, Qruise, Q-CTRL, and Oxford Ionics.
In terms of capital strength, the company ended Q1 with $209.1 million in cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investments, which grew to $237.7 million by April 30 following the closing of the share purchase by Quanta Computer.
Leading into its Aug. 12 earnings release, analysts anticipate that Rigetti will report a narrower loss per share of $0.05, compared to a Q2 2024 loss of around $0.07 per share, which is a 28.6% improvement. On the revenue front, projections indicate a decline of 39.3% year-over-year (YoY), with expected revenue around $1.87 million.
Meanwhile, analysts anticipate loss per share to improve 30.6% YoY to $0.25 in fiscal 2025, before improving by another 16% to reach $0.21 in fiscal 2026.
Regarding the broader 2025 roadmap, Rigetti has laid out some forward-looking technical milestones.
Management highlighted plans to scale its quantum systems, targeting a 36-qubit processor by mid-2025 and surpassing 100 qubits by year-end, along with achieving 99.5% to 99.7% two-qubit gate fidelity and gate speeds under 10 nanoseconds.
Rigetti’s stock has seen a wave of bullish upgrades in recent weeks. The most notable came on Aug. 4, when Needham analyst Quinn Bolton raised his price target from $15 to $18 and reaffirmed a “Buy” rating, citing surging momentum in the quantum computing industry, boosted by initiatives like DARPA’s Quantum Benchmark Initiative and Congressional progress on the Department of Energy Quantum Leadership Act of 2025.
Just a couple of weeks earlier, on July 23, B. Riley also increased its price target, lifting it to $19 (from $15) while maintaining a “Buy” stance.
Wall Street is majorly bullish on RGTI. Overall, RGTI has a consensus “Strong Buy” rating. Of the six analysts covering the stock, five advise a “Strong Buy,” and one suggests a “Moderate Buy.”
The average analyst price target for RGTI is $16.33, marginal potential upside. B. Riley’s Street-high target price of $19 suggests that the stock could rally as much as 19%.
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On the date of publication, Subhasree Kar did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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