Europe’s ‘Coalition of the Willing’ plan for Ukraine is already unravelling

Europe’s “Coalition of the Willing” summit on Sept. 4 struggled to gain Washington’s support for its proposed plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, and doubts remain over whether or not it can be implemented, European and Ukrainian officials have told the Kyiv Independent.

After the Paris summit, French President Emmanuel Macron said that 26 countries are ready to send troops or contribute other support as part of guarantees, but only after a ceasefire.

Macron also said that if Russia failed to adhere to a peace process, both Europe and the U.S. would impose further sanctions on Russia.

But despite Macron’s attempts to present Europe as a united front with the U.S., there are several signs that this is not the case.

European leaders held a call with Donald Trump after the summit during which, according to Axios, the U.S. president berated them for “funding the war” through purchases of Russian oil.

Despite more than three years of war, Europe has still to wean itself off Russian oil and gas.

According to two European officials familiar with the talks who spoke to the Kyiv Independent, the call did not go well, though they declined to provide further details.

As for Macron’s claim that the U.S. would impose further sanctions on Russia if it does not stop fighting, serious doubts remain in European capitals, as well as in Ukraine.

“It is still too early to make this assessment (that Trump will refuse to impose sanctions), but it is possible, given the past developments,” a senior European official told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity.

Trump has had eight months to impose sanctions on Russia and, despite repeated threats, has declined every opportunity to do so.

“It is difficult to say (if Trump will impose sanctions) because he is extremely unpredictable; no one knows what he will do tomorrow,” the official added.

Oleksandr Merezhko, a top lawmaker from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s party, told the Kyiv Independent he has “doubts” over Trump’s willingness to impose sanctions on Russia.

“But I still hope, even though my hope is diminishing. I still hope that our European allies will somehow manage to persuade Trump to finally impose those sanctions not only on Russia but also on its trade partners,” he added.

There are some positive signs. On Sept. 5, European Council President Antonio Costa said a European team is heading to the U.S. to “work with our American friends” on a new sanctions package.

But overshadowing the entire European plan is the fact that Russia has said out loud and repeatedly that it has no intention or need to end its war against Ukraine, currently a necessary prerequisite for the security guarantees proposed by the Coalition of the Willing.

Zelensky on Sept. 5, insisted any security guarantees for Ukraine should be implemented before Russia stops fighting — an option that doesn’t even appear to be on the table for Europe at present.

“The first step to ending any war is a ceasefire,” Zelensky said via videolink at the Cernobbio Economic Forum in Italy.

“If pressure increases, not decreases… if there are security guarantees and sanctions, this will naturally push him (Russian President Vladimir Putin) in the right direction.”

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