Indian markets: Will global cues and Fed rate cut hopes fuel a market recovery next week?

Mumbai: Equity indices ended almost flat on Friday in choppy trading as weakness in information technology stocks hit by US tariff concerns offset gains in auto shares driven by optimism around GST cuts. For the week, the stock measures notched up 1% gains, rebounding from the previous week’s losses NSE’s Nifty gained 6.7 points to close at 24,741. BSE’s Sensex fell 7.25 points to end at 80,710.76.

Elsewhere in Asia, markets rose ahead of an important August US jobs report scheduled on Friday evening. China gained 1.24%, Hong Kong rose 1.5%, Taiwan climbed 1.3%, Japan added 1.03%, while South Korea edged up 0.1%. The jobs report which came out after trading hours in Mumbai, showed the unemployment rate was climbing, increasing expectations of more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Lower US rates could weaken the dollar and drive more flows into other global markets. Europe’s Stoxx 600 was up 1.2% at the time of going to print.

“Indian markets are poised to recover next week, supported by buoyant global cues and expectations of lower US rates, which are expected to boost global risk assets,” said Devarsh Vakil, head of prime research, HDFC Securities.

The Nifty however faces a strong hurdle at 25,000. “For a fresh leg of the uptrend, a decisive breakout above 25,000 is essential,” said Nilesh Jain, head-technical and derivatives research, Centrum Broking. “A successful move above this level could open the gates for a rally towards 25,300 and 25,500, while immediate support lies at 24,520.”

The Nifty IT index fell 1.4%, extending losses to the fourth straight day after an unconfirmed report that Donald Trump may impose tariffs on the Indian software services industry sparked a sell-off. The index, which had slipped up to 3% earlier in the day, pared some losses after the report was withdrawn.

Auto shares were the top gains on expectations that the GST cuts for vehicles would boost demand. The auto index rose 1.3% with Eicher Motors and M&M gaining 2.4% and 2.3% respectively. The India VIX, the market’s fear gauge, slipped 0.7% to 10.78. Among broader indices, the Nifty Midcap 150 edged up 0.1%, while the Nifty Smallcap 250 fell 0.23%.