Jayden Daniels vs. Caleb Williams 2.0: a year after the Hail Mary

Remember that Week 8 game last season? The one where Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams shared a hug after a nail-biter? Little did they know, that moment was like a fork in the road, setting them on wildly different paths.

Daniels, now the star QB for the Washington Commanders (they snagged him at No. 2 in the ’24 draft), capped that game with a Hail Mary for the win. Talk about a grand entrance! He rode that momentum all the way to Offensive Rookie of the Year, even leading the Commanders to the NFC Championship Game. Seriously, it was a rookie season for the ages.

Williams, on the other hand, the top pick that year, stepped into a tough situation in Chicago. That loss to Washington kicked off a brutal 10-game losing streak for the Bears, which led to some big changes, including firing the head coach and offensive coordinator.

Fast forward to Monday night (8:15 p.m. ET, ABC). Daniels and Williams are set to face each other again, with that Commanders’ 18-15 victory from last October hanging in the air.

Washington (3-2) is fighting to stay competitive in the NFC East, while the Bears (2-2) are riding a two-game win streak after a bye week. Can they keep it going?

To dig into this rivalry, we’ve got a dream team of ESPN analysts weighing in: Bears reporter Courtney Cronin, Commanders reporter John Keim, senior writer Seth Wickersham, draft guru Jordan Reid, analytics whiz Aaron Schatz, data expert Seth Walder, and NFL insider Jeremy Fowler. They’re breaking down everything, including how that single game last year changed the trajectory for both young quarterbacks.

How That Game Shaped Daniels and Williams

Keim: “What’s interesting is how little that game *changed* Daniels, at least outwardly. Morning shows came calling, but he turned them down. He was back at work by 5:30 AM every day. It was business as usual.”

“But for everyone else? It cemented his legend. The franchise savior who throws a 52-yard bomb with a *broken rib*? (He got hurt earlier in the game!) His quarterbacks coach, Tavita Pritchard, put it best: ‘He’s unfazed by those things and will do anything to win.'”

Daniels was already a front-runner for Rookie of the Year, but that game solidified it. He threw for a career-high 326 yards. Before that Bears game, he had 6 touchdowns and 4 rushing TDs in six games. After? 18 passing touchdowns. Boom.

But really, it was about more than just the stats. It was about *belief*. Punter Tress Way, the longest-tenured player on the Commanders, sums it up: “Coming off those incredible performances…there’s just this sense that we always have a shot. We’ve got him. You never know what he’s going to do, and he’s in our uniform.”

Cronin: “It’s easy to forget, but Williams actually had a clutch moment *right before* the Hail Mary. He led a 10-play, 62-yard touchdown drive, capped with a successful 2-point conversion, to give the Bears the lead. It *almost* would have been his first fourth-quarter comeback in the NFL.”

“Instead, it became the start of a downward spiral.”

“Just four days after the game, the Commanders’ defensive coordinator, Joe Whitt Jr., took the blame for putting the team in a position to need a Hail Mary. Williams’ dad, Carl, retweeted a clip of Whitt’s press conference with the hashtags #accountability and #realcoach. (He quickly deleted it.)”

“Closing out games became a huge issue for the Bears. They had chances to win in the fourth quarter or overtime against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions in the weeks following that loss, but couldn’t pull it off.”

“Williams struggled to bounce back in losses to Arizona and New England. Against the Patriots, he was sacked a season-high nine times, and cameras caught an awkward exchange between him and the offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, who seemed to be smiling while Williams looked frustrated. Waldron was fired two days later.”

“Williams ended the season on a high note with a walk-off win against Green Bay, and he made it clear what he wanted in the next head coach: ‘A coach that challenges us, a man of his word, a disciplined coach… Just helping us and finding ways to win.'”

“The Bears eventually hired former Lions OC Ben Johnson on January 21st.”

Daniels’ Consistency vs. Williams’ Struggles

Keim: “Washington’s offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, is always telling his staff and players, ‘The biggest hindrance to success is not failure, it’s boredom.’ Daniels embodies that. He’s consistent in his routine. Whether it’s 6 a.m. walk-throughs or his pregame ritual, he’s locked in.”

“Pritchard added, ‘I like the saying of don’t get bored making the right decisions. Routines can feel monotonous, but that’s what allows you to keep coming back.'”

“Backup QB Marcus Mariota pointed out that the Commanders didn’t try to force Daniels into a mold. ‘A lot of times when guys are drafted high, they’re asked to be formed into a player the staff had previously been with. More times than not it doesn’t work out well.'”

“This team has done a great job of allowing him to be himself and put him in a position where he’s comfortable, confident, and can go play at a high level.”

Cronin: “Before drafting Williams, Bears GM Ryan Poles described quarterbacks as either ‘artists’ (like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who create outside the box) or ‘surgeons’ (like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, who operate precisely within the system).”

“Getting Williams to embrace the ‘surgeon’ role has been a priority for Ben Johnson and his staff.”

“‘We’re asking him to be a little bit more structured,’ Johnson said in July. ‘Sometimes there’s multiple calls. There’s shifts, there’s motions, there’s a lot more going on mentally than probably there’s ever been for him.'”

“Some of Williams’ early struggles were about being late on throws, holding onto the ball too long, and missing the easy checkdown – all things he’s admitted to working on.”

“‘It’s not perfect yet,’ Johnson said. ‘There’s still a number of plays where our eyes aren’t quite in the right position or we’re holding onto the ball just a tick longer than what we’re coaching. But I did see tremendous growth in terms of going through the progression.'”

“After those back-to-back wins before the bye, Williams felt the improvement: ‘I would just say my footwork, and then just being more comfortable with everything that Ben and the guys have thrown at me.'”

By the Numbers: How They’re Playing This Season

Walder on Williams: “Two stats really jump out this season: a 23% off-target rate and a -10% completion percentage over expectation. That’s worst in the league, and it all points to the same problem: accuracy.”

“It’s a small sample size, but both numbers are actually *worse* than last year. The good news? He’s got great pass protection and his receivers are getting open. If he can just iron out the accuracy, things could turn around quickly.”

On Daniels: “One thing I’m watching is his performance on late downs. Last season, he was pedestrian on early downs (53.5 QBR), but *elite* on third and fourth down (94.9 QBR!). Was that a sign of things to come, or just a fluke?”

“So far in 2025, his early-down numbers are similar to last year, but his third and fourth-down QBR has plummeted to 23.6, with a 36% off-target rate. Too early to panic? Definitely. But worth keeping an eye on.”

Biggest Surprises Compared to Predraft Expectations

Reid: “For Williams, it’s been his early struggles with accuracy. Before the draft, pinpoint accuracy was one of his strengths. He needed to be more disciplined within structure, but when he was in the pocket, his completion percentage was always high.”

“Daniels, on the other hand, has been a revelation. He’s emerged as the early frontrunner in the ’24 QB class. His poise and calm demeanor have translated to the NFL faster than anyone expected, leading the Commanders to the NFC Championship in his rookie year. It’s rare to see a young quarterback have that kind of success so quickly.”

Did the Bears Even Consider Daniels?

Fowler: “The Bears did their ‘due diligence’ on Daniels before the draft. They met with him at the NFL combine, which usually involves a quick 15-minute interview.”

“While they didn’t fly him to Chicago for a visit, they did reach out to his camp to ask about him. However, it sounds like Daniels wasn’t necessarily pushing for the #1 spot. He liked the situation in Washington and was happy with where he landed.”

How Great Can Daniels Be?

Schatz: “It’s still too early to say, but the possibilities are wide open. Based on my DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) metric, Daniels had the fourth-most valuable rookie quarterback season since 1978.”

“His rookie season was similar to Peyton Manning’s in 1998, *but* he’s also a great mobile scrambler. Or, he could end up like Robert Griffin III, whose career was derailed by injuries. Or maybe he’ll be somewhere in the middle, like Dak Prescott.”

How Will Ben Johnson Impact Williams?

Wickersham: “I spent some time with Williams shortly after the Bears hired Johnson. He’d just had minor wrist surgery, but he was already back throwing the ball with his private coach and therapist.”

“He’s got an incredible arm. I remembered draft night 2024, when he howled with joy after the Bears picked him. He had declared that he would be the No. 1 pick in high school and went out and did it. Pure elation.”

“He told me that when Johnson was hired, he howled again. He said it was the same type of scream, the same type of feeling, as that draft night. ‘Yes,’ he said with a smile as he threw.”