US state-level perspective of the immigration slowdown

As the US continues to tighten its immigration policies, the decreasing net immigration will slow the growth in labor supply, making the labor market appear tight even as the perception of job availability has deteriorated among consumers.

• Unauthorized migrants play a role in alleviating shortages in local labor markets as they are a potent source of prime-age labor supply and are more likely to migrate to states with greater labor demand.
• So far this year, states with already large shares of undocumented residents are experiencing the biggest reversals in net unauthorized migration.
• The baseline assumes net immigration will bottom at a 500,000 annualized pace by year’s end, where it’ll remain into 2028.
• Every net unauthorized migrant per 1,000 residents lowers the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio by 0.05pts.